Future Minerals Forum: From Ambition to Architecture
Across plenaries and closed-door discussions, FMF reinforced that the future of mining will be shaped less by whether transformation is needed, and more by how it is designed, sequenced, and governed.
- Decarbonisation is Moving from Principle to Profit
A notable shift at FMF was the framing of mining decarbonisation as an economic and operational decision, not a reputational one.
Industry leaders on the ground highlighted that over 50% of major mining companies expect to significantly change their operating models, particularly through fleet electrification and energy system redesign. Crucially, the driver is not only emissions reduction, but cost competitiveness and talent attraction.
Solar power emerged repeatedly as a case in point. In arid, sunny regions, from the US Southwest to parts of the Middle East, solar power is already proving cheaper than gas, with the added resilience advantage as hydroelectric capacity becomes less reliable due to prolonged droughts, caused by climate change. This mirrors findings from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank, which show renewable-powered mining operations increasingly outperforming fossil-fuel-dependent sites on long-term cost curves.
Decarbonisation, in this framing, is not a compromise. It is fast becoming the rational operating choice for the first time in mining history.
- One Minerals Transition Will Not Fit All
FMF discussions also indicated a push back against the idea of a single global minerals playbook.
Different minerals exhibit radically different characteristics, from geological concentration by location and resulting processing intensity, to local value-addition potential and geopolitical sensitivity. Lithium, copper, nickel, rare earths, and polymetallic nodules do not, and cannot, be governed under uniform policy frameworks.
This reinforces a growing consensus among policymakers and investors: effective mineral strategies must be differentiated, adaptive, and importantly both regionally and locally grounded. Attempts to impose blanket rules risk slowing investment, rather than accelerating responsible supply.
- Policy Clarity is Now the Binding Constraint
Repeatedly, miners and investors returned to the same concern: uncertain policy signals, particularly in the West.
Capital-intensive, long-life assets require foresight, not just ambition. Clear regulatory pathways, credible timelines, and stable permitting regimes are now seen as more valuable than incentives alone. Where governments provide clarity, capital usually follows. In contrast, where ambiguity persists, projects tend to stall.
This aligns with OECD and IMF analysis showing that policy uncertainty, rather than commodity prices, is increasingly the primary risk factor in mining investment decisions.
- Development, Environment, and Society are not Trade-Offs
A strong message from Saudi officials and regional leaders was that mining investment can, and must, be aligned with environmental protection and social responsibility.
Rather than positioning sustainability as a constraint, FMF framed it as a condition for legitimacy, access to capital, and long-term license to operate. This echoes a wider shift away from binary “pro” or “anti” mining narratives, toward risk-based, and outcomes-focused governance.
- Technology in Mining
The mining sector needs to rethink its approach to technology. Rather than adapting problems to fit trendy solutions like AI or blockchain, we should visualise challenges first and then select the right methods. While innovation evolves rapidly, genuine expertise remains scarce, especially at the downstream level. This demands investment in capacity building, training, and infrastructure that enables producing countries to maintain data ownership and sovereignty. Ultimately, we don’t need more data, real progress depends on nurturing the full ecosystem of infrastructure, skills, and local capacity, not just deploying the latest technology.
From Conversation to Construction
FMF 2026 underscored that the minerals transition will be won not through slogans, but through carefully crafted project design and planning choices: differentiated policies, credible regulation, investment certainty, and evidence-based debate.
The challenge now is not to decide whether to act, but to ensure that action is thoughtful, proportionate, and grounded in reality.