Why Mineral Supply Chains are Still Under Pressure

The latest World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook published this month points to a minerals market shaped by two opposing forces: softer near-term industrial demand, and stronger structural demand from the energy transition, electrification, AI infrastructure, and defence. For downstream companies and metals consumers, while prices have dropped in key commodities, overall supply chain volatility remains elevated. The World Bank projects its metals and minerals price index to remain broadly steady in 2026 before edging up in 2027, supported by modest growth in demand and tightening supplies. It also notes that upside risks include production disruptions, new trade restrictions, and faster-than-expected data-centre expansion, all the more relevant in the current climate of heightened geopolitical conflict and AI expansion.  

For companies buying metals, components, batteries, electronics, vehicles, infrastructure inputs, or renewable-energy technologies, the implications vary by material. Copper remains strategically important: demand is being supported by EVs, power grids, data centres, defence spending, and AI-related infrastructure. Recent reports estimate that demand could skyrocket 50% by 2040. Meanwhile, mine disruptions continue to constrain output growth at key copper producing sites. The result is shortages at smelters and refiners, and tighter downstream supply chains. The World Bank expects copper prices to reach new annual highs, even as weak global activity and China’s property downturn weigh on broader consumption. Aluminium, copper, and tin are also highlighted as exposed to potential supply chain pressure from accelerated data-centre buildout. These facilities require huge volumes of metals for cooling, power distribution, and structural support.  

The critical minerals picture is even more volatile, according to the World Bank’s new analysis. The report notes that rare earth prices rose by 31% in Q3 2025, cobalt by 21%, and lithium by 18%. These increases were linked to policy and geopolitical developments, including China-U.S. trade tensions, tighter Chinese mining regulations, and export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo. While the World Bank expects near-term critical mineral prices to remain below 2022 levels, it warns that longer-term demand from clean energy systems, electronics, AI infrastructure, and advanced military technologies is expected to outpace supply, leaving critical minerals markets structurally tight and vulnerable to disruption.  

This matters for downstream companies because the risk is no longer just “will the material be available?” It is also: where is it coming from, who controls processing capacity, what policy restrictions could affect trade flows, and how quickly can a company respond if supply tightens? The World Bank notes that mining and processing remain highly concentrated in a few countries, making supply chains particularly vulnerable to disruption amid elevated trade tensions. It also highlights a rise in commodity-specific trade restrictions, including U.S. tariffs affecting copper, aluminium, and steel. These controls come alongside EU curbs on Russian aluminium, Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban, and other measures that could disrupt supply chains and increase price volatility.  

The practical takeaway is that companies should be mapping material dependencies, identifying exposure to critical minerals and high-risk geographies, and stress-testing assumptions about supplier relationships. The World Bank’s report shows that durable protection for producers and consumers is more likely to come from diversification and improved data transparency, enabling robust planning to anticipate – rather than react on the back foot to increasingly complex mineral and metal markets.  

How TDi can help your business

For companies navigating this increasingly complex minerals landscape, TDi helps turn volatility into foresight. We support clients to map material dependencies, assess exposure to critical minerals and high‑risk geographies, and build the data foundations needed for confident decision‑making. Our team brings deep expertise in supply‑chain due diligence, geopolitical risk, and responsible sourcing – enabling organisations to stress‑test assumptions, diversify supply, and strengthen resilience ahead of market tightening. Whether you are a manufacturer, technology provider, energy developer, or investor, TDi provides the strategic insight and practical tools to anticipate disruption, protect value chains, and plan for long‑term stability in a rapidly shifting minerals market. Get in touch to find out how we can help your business or organisation.